Monday, July 22, 2024

WSJ - Evictions surge in major cities in the American Sunbelt

 


WSJ - Evictions surge in major cities in the American Sunbelt. Highlights below. 

The Facts: 

Tenant evictions look stuck at elevated levels in several concerns of the US.

Evictions are up 35% or more compared to 2020 norms.

The includes Las Vegas, Houston and Phoenix where landlords filed more than 8,000 eviction notices in January.

Overall, eviction notices were up 15% or more in 10 of 33 cities tracked by Eviction Lab.

“Increased rents have made it difficult for a lot of households in many areas and you can see that reflected in the eviction filing increases”.

About a quarter of renter households in American spend 50% of more of their income on housing, according to Harvard University Joint Center of Housing Studies.

GoFundMe said eviction related fundraisers have risen 40% since before the pandemic and 10% from May to June.

Weitz – I don’t think GoFundMe as popular pre-COVID so I’ll take this with a grain of salt, but 10% increase in a month is worth noting.

Overall, this is more evidence that the underlying isn’t as strong as the stock market or ‘experts’ would think. I expect this trend to continue unfortunately in the short to intermediate term. 

For more information on Snohomish County Commercial Real Estate, consider contacting our firm. 

Weitz Commercial

Scott@WeitzCommercial.com

t: 206.306.4034

Scott Weitz

Friday, June 28, 2024

CNBC Report- inventory levels increase 35% YOY

 See CNBC latest...

CNBC Article


The basics: 

For the four weeks ended June 23rd the typical home sold for slightly less than its asking price. Average home price growth slipped from 4.6% in May to 3.5% in April the slowest growth rate in seven months.

Supply is starting to build which is leading to cooling and prices. Total active listings are now 35% higher than they were at this time last year according to realtor.com.

Weitz - As I've said for a long time, I believe the biggest leading indicator by far of where we will see this market go is inventory levels. To see that they have increased 35% from a year ago likley confirms my belief in recent posts that we have reached or are very near a top. I would encourage and expect retirees to start to wake up to this in the near future, and start to try to max out their potential gains of their long term real estate holds as they head into retirement years. This will lead to a significant increase in inventory which coupled with the current interest rate environment (provided it stays relatively high) will lead to significant sluggishness in the market and market depreciation. The time bomb is slowing ticking. 


Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Home prices begin to come down in some pandemic boomtowns.

 

See article here: 

Home prices begin to come down in pandemic boomtowns like Austin, Tampa (yahoo.com)

The basics:

Home prices in some large US cities declined in April, according to mortgage data company ICE Mortgage.

San Antonio, Austin, and Tampa saw the biggest monthly price declines.

“The key differentiator we’re seeing in terms of growing inventory levels is a rise in Sellers willingness to list their homes for s sale”.

SW – So you mean inventory is rising?

This article is horrifically written so I’m not going to waste much time on it, but it marks the first hint of price depreciation for residential caused by the obvious factor of increased inventory. The mention this isn’t a sign of ‘market crash’. I think its just the beginning of one. Time will tell.

Friday, June 14, 2024

May, 2024: US Home sales “crumble in May” on higher rates and record prices. - Reuters

 REUTERS Residential update key facts

US Home sales in May fell to the lowest levels in the past decade, according to Redfin as both SUPPLY and DEMAND remain sluggish.

See full article here. 

Housing affordability is at an ALL TIME LOW.

The number of home sales remain roughly 25% pre-pandemic levels, according to Redfin.

In May, 407k homes were sold. Only October 2023 and May, 2020 (the heart of COVID) recorded fewer sales.

Home sales dropped 2.9% from a year earlier while pricing rose 5.1% year over year.

New listings rose .3% month over month in May, and 8.8% from a year earlier.

Weitz: No surprise here. The key items I'm looking at are 1) 8.8% increase in inventory YOY. As I've said, that will be the primary leading indicator as to where this market is going. If that continues to rise, I fully expect the market forces to tread toward negative price pressure; 2) The 3rd lowest number of sales in the past 10 years with one of those months being the start of COVID where everyone was on lock down and clearly no sales were taking place. 

I'll echo my previous call that we are fast approaching a market top. I would expect this summer will end up being the top of the market for some time. This fall will be chaotic given the political climate with political and economic tensions becoming abundantly apparently. 

My info: 

Weitz Commercial

Scott Weitz

Scott@WeitzCommercial.com

Text: 206.306.4034


Monday, June 3, 2024

Past Due CRE loans increase to 9% - highest in a decade

Update on CRE loan defaults according to Bisnow.com. Find the original article here

The facts: 

1) Past due nonresidential commercial real estate loans increased by 1.8B or 9% form the previous quarter according to the FDIC coupled with a 64.2B (79.5%) increase in profits. 

2) The default (or "non-current" as they call it) for non-owner occupied commercial real estate loans is not at its highest level since Q4 2013. 

3) This increase is contributing to the amount of 'problem banks' that either have low capital reserves, a high number of nonperforming loans, weak management, consistent losses or liquidity problems according to CoStar. 

The number of banks on the FDIC problem list went from 52 in Q4 '23 to 63 in Q1 '24. 

Weitz Take: 

None of this is a surprise if you follow this blog. Expect more of the same. I'd expect that we start to see bank failures making the news by end of '24/ 1st half of '25. I have to say - between wars escalating across the globe, the current situation of political weaponization of the legal system in the USA, and what I perceive as obvious economic peril quickly approaching,  I've never been more uncertain of this path of this country or the world leadership. If nothing else, it will fascinating (if not sad) to watch it play out. 


Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Office Loan Modifications jump dramatically May, 2024

 

Office Loan Modifications Jump

Recent update from CNBC here:  



The details: 

Rising office loan modifications and delinquencies.

1.42B in office modifications in Q1 2024 vs. $117M in Q1 2023

"Government intervention may be needed".

See more on loan modifications stats in Commercial RE posted on this blog in April. 

Weitz Commercial Real Estate, Legal & Economics Blog: Office loan defaults near history levels (realestatelawwa.blogspot.com)

Weitz – I have a hard time seeing government intervention just 15 years after the last bank crisis where the “too big too fail banks” became even bigger. That said, memories are shockingly short and the importance of a healthy banking sector can’t be understated in a system based entirely on debt. Time will tell I suppose, but I’m guessing the political will to save banks won’t be there.

I'd also suggest that the 'kicking the can down the road strategy' will eventually run out of steam. I don't want to say it won't work, but owners may find that getting cash out of their properties may be better than paying large fees/ interest rates and simply hoping things rebound soon. 

For more help on Snohomish Commercial Real Estate, feel free to email or call me: 

Weitz Commercial

Scott@WeitzCommercial.com

t: 306.306.4034



Thursday, May 23, 2024

New Home Build sale drop significantly. May, 2024

 CNBC article highlights new build weakness. 

See article here


The Highlights: 

Sales of newly built homes dropped 4.7% in April compared with March and fell 7.7% from the prior year the US consensus said Thursday.

March sales were also revised significantly lower.

Weitz take: So tired of downward revisions by the government. How is it so hard to get those figures right and why release them until you do have them accurate? 

Builders say they cannot lower prices due to the high cost from labor and materials.

Weitz take: Ummm hmmm.... Their profits would indicate otherwise. 

For all the happy talk from the big builders the entire build industry is selling new homes at a pace below the five year average according to Bleakley Financial Group.

With the nationwide shortage of roughly 1.5 million homes the lack of housing units is the primary cause of growing housing affordability challenges policymakers at all levels of the government need to enact policy changes that will allow builders to construct more homes such as speeding up permit approval times providing resources for skilled labor training and fixing building material supply chains” cited Robert Dietz, the NAHBs chief economist.

Weitz: this is so true. The bureaucracy of local governments has become totally outrageous. The length and costs of simply having the 'approval/ right'  to construct does not coincide with the huge need for reasonably priced housing. 

Overall, this coincides with my call for a top in the market in the near future (if not now). It's all about inventory, but if new homes are not selling, that will add onto the inventory levels and as I've said, that is the #1 indicator for prices as we move forward. 

 

Wednesday, May 22, 2024

National Real Estate market update - May, 2024

 The latest Realty Check from CNBC's Diana Olick 

See article here

The basics and my analysis: 

Median Price of a home sale rose 5.7% to $407,600, a 5.7% increase. 

Inventory rose 9% month over month and up 16% YOY. 

Sales were down 1.9% from last year. 

"Home prices reaching a record high for the month of April is very good news for homeowners, said NAR Chief Economist Lawerence Yun, however the pace of price increases should taper off since more inventory is becoming available". (WEITZ - AKA - price drops). 

Weitz take: TIIIIIIIIMMMMMMMBBBBBBEEEERRRRRRR..... here is the inventory number we have been talking about and anticipating. That is by far the biggest predictor on pricing moving forward (along with interest rates at a close 2nd). If inventory continues to rise and rates stay anywhere close to where they are, we will start to see price slashing. 

I'll go ahead and make a bold prediction...... The current market top has either been reached or will be reached in the next few months....I think we will have notable price drops by year's end in almost every major market.... you don't get that on CNBC! I may be wrong, but I strongly believe this inventory increase will start to cause ripples. 

If you are interested in investing in Snohomish County Commercial Real Estate, shoot me an email or a text and I'd be happy to help. 

Weitz Commercial

108 Union St. 

Snohomish, WA 

Scott@WeitzCommercial.com

t: 206.306.4034




Multi-family Distress rate climbs significantly nationally.

 

See below excerpts from Bisnow.com article found here.

The worst isn't over for the distressed riddled multifamily industry according to new monthly financial indicators. The overall distress rate set a new record of 8.35% in April according to real estate data firm cred IQ, with multifamily leading the increase. The multifamily distress rate increased from 3.7% in March to 7.2% in April.

The jump was led by a loan backed by the 3222-unit Parkmerced, one of the largest multifamily complexes in San Francisco being transferred to a special servicing.

About $1.2B worth of multifamily CMBS loans were transferred to special servicing in April boosting the multi-family commercial mortgage backed loan ‘special servicing to 5.1% according to Trepp.

Loans on more than 58,000 multifamily properties totaling $525B will mature over the next five years according to Yardi. That accounts for almost half of the 1.1 trillion of current apartment loans. About 150 billion of that is set to mature by the end of next year multifamily dive reports.

Interest rates rose as multifamily property values fell 20% to 30% from peaks in 2022.

As refinancing long-term loans for newly built properties has become more and more difficult for owners and developers, distress numbers could rise further in coming months the outlet reports.

Ben Kreigsman, Dallas based Lion Real Estate Group’s director of acquisitions told Multi-family Dive that refi out of construction financing is “getting exceeding difficult”.

Weitz – if you read this blog, none of this should be a surprise. What I do find moderately surprising is the multi-family component of all this. They have been one of the ‘belles of the ball’ and presumably more of a safe haven than their office, and retail counterparts. A distress rate increase from 3.2% to 7.2% in a single month is nothing less than staggering – that may be a short term anomaly, but I expect the overall rate will likely increase from current levels regardless.

Sadly, I think the “party” is just getting started and we can expect more of the same in the coming months/ years…. especially if rates stay at the levels they are at. The banks have to be feeling the pinch at least modestly making re-fi’s harder in general and especially challenging in the current interest rate environment.

Our Firm

Weitz Commercial

108 Union Street 

Snohomish, WA 98290

Scott@WeitzCommercial.com

T: 206.306.4034

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

FREDDIE APPLIES TO BE IN SECONDARY MORTGAGE MARKET


This one is interesting.

Freddie Mac filed with the NAH to be a provider on the secondary market.

On April 16th, Freddie MAC filed with the NAH would be able to get into secondary mortgage market.

This is just great (extreme sarcasm). Let’s get the government involved with providing even more consumer debt any other lender would ever give. This gives a short term boast to lenders, banks, etc but at what cost? 

Imagine if this becomes common amount homeowners to get cash out simply to pay for overpriced inflationary good and then the market goes down a bit…. Nothing less than a foreclosure disaster.

This is like solving diabetes with even more sugar. Our government is back peddling, realizes we have a problem coming and have no clue how to handle it.


Monday, May 6, 2024

Office loan defaults near history levels

 


Below are some highlights from a WSJ article last week. Everything we have predicted is slowly becoming a reality. We expect more for remainder of the year and will continue to follow carefully.

WSJ:

1. Defaults are reaching historic levels in the office market as a growing number of owners capitulate to persistently high interest rates and weak demand. More than $38 billion [worth of] US office buildings are threatened by defaults foreclosures or other forms of distress according to data firm MCSI. That is the highest amount since the fourth quarter of 2012 in the aftermath of the 2008/09 financial crisis.

2. Office owners are paying back their loans at a much slower rate. As recently as 2021, more than 90% of office loans that were converted into commercial mortgage-backed securities were paid off when they became due according to Moody's. Last year that figure fell to 35% - the worst rate in the history of the data which goes back to 2007.

Weitz- I'm not sure this figure can be highlighted enough. We went from 90% payoffs on maturity to 35% ..... simply put, this is a staggering issue for the owners, the general market, and arguably most importantly, the banks. Once they are forced to take losses, we have some major risks of a capital concerns, shutdowns, etc. How far does the spiral go? How does the government intervene if at all? we shall see. 

3. In the next 12 months, 18 billion of the office loans converted into securities will mature more than double the volume in 2023. Moody's projects that 73% of loans will be difficult to refinance because of the property income, debt levels, vacancy and approaching lease expirations.

Earlier this year, industry hopes were high that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting rates. In recent weeks those hopes have faded as inflation concerns have persisted.

4. The US offensive vacancy rate is currently at a record 13.8% compared with 9.4 at the end of 2019 according to data service costar group.

Weitz- more than anything, this is the real problem. Most businesses have changed the way they operate / communicate, and large offices are simply no longer a necessity or priority. Even tenants that seek to renew they leases are generally doing so with a smaller footprint given the costs and change in operational structure. 

For more information on Snohomish County Commercial Real Estate Investing, we are happy to help. 

Weitz Commercial

108 Union Street

Snohomish, WA 98290

T: 206.306.4034

www.weitzcommercial.com





 

Friday, April 19, 2024

US Commercial Foreclosures more than double YOY

 

According to Bisnow.com article, US commercial foreclosures more than doubled in March compared to the same month in 2023.

Real estate data specialist Attom counted 625 commercial foreclosures across the country last month, a monthly increase of 6% in an annual increase of 117%. 

Foreclosures have climbed steadily since the pandemic began rising from 141 in May of 2020.

California had the most foreclosures in March at 187, a 405% increase from a year earlier. Texas saw 129% increase from March of 2023, while Florida experienced an uptick of 174% over last year. 

Delinquency rates for mortgages backed by commercial properties were the same during the first quarter as quarter three with 3.2 percents of loans more than 30 days late.

Office properties remain the most common for delinquencies and foreclosures. The delinquency rate for office based commercial loans increased to 6.8% in the first quarter while hospitality back properties ticked up to 6.3% delinquent real tailback loans dropped from 5% to 4.7%.

Weitz Take: If you read this blog, you know this is something I've expected for some time. Let's see how the trends are moving forward, but I would predict more rather than the less in the immediate to intermediate future. I tell my investors to stay nimble and get ready for deals. 

For more information on Snohomish County Commercial Real Estate, consider contacting a Snohomish County Commercial Real Estate Broker

Our Firm: 

Weitz Commercial

Scott@Weitzcommercial.com

T: 206.306.4034

March Home sales dropped despite a surge in supply

 CNBC Report this week. 





Key Facts

Home says fell 4.3% in March

Mortgage rates rose to 7.5%

Inventory "improved slightly" up 4.7% month to month (3.2 month supply)

Prices were up 4.8% YOY

Weitz takeaway:

If you have read this blog, you know that my number indicator on the future of home pricing was inventory. To see rates over 7.5% and with "improve" (increased) inventory, it will be interesting to see what the next 3-6 months hold. If inventory continues to increase, I predict we will start to see modest to significant price reductions. If I had to make a prediction, I believe we will look back on this as the official start of the residential downturn. 



Thursday, April 18, 2024

International Monetary Fund Warning to the US

 


AP- The International Monetary Fund recently sounded the alarm on the Biden administration’s rampant spending as “out of line with what is needed for long-term fiscal stability.”

The IMF’s latest forecast from the IMF — a group tasked with fighting financial crises worldwide — warned that the ballooning national debt and the fiscal deficit threatened to exacerbate sky-high levels of inflation while posing a long-term risk to the global economy.

The IMF noted in its forecast that the US federal budget deficit grew from $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2022 to $1.7 trillion last year.

The debt held by the public, which surpassed $34 Trillion, is on course to exceed $45.7 trillion within a decade — which is roughly 114% of the gross domestic product, according to projections by the Congressional Budget Office.

“Something will have to give,” the IMF warned.

The IMF, a financial agency run under the auspices of the United Nations, praised the US economy for its growth.

Despite rampant inflation, the US economy has continued to add jobs while spending and income have been on the rise. In the fourth quarter of last year, GDP rose at an annual rate of 3.3%. In 2023, the US economy added 2.7 million jobs.

Nevertheless, the IMF said that the Biden administration’s spending is cause for concern.

The exceptional recent performance of the United States is certainly impressive and a major driver of global growth,” the IMF said. “But it reflects strong demand factors as well, including a fiscal stance that is out of line with long-term fiscal sustainability.”

Since entering office, Biden has spent trillions on COVID relief as well as infrastructure. The US has also spent billions in helping Ukraine fight off the Russian invasion.

But the Biden administration said that tax cuts signed into law by former President Donald Trump are to blame for ballooning debt.

“The Trump tax cuts added $2 trillion to the debt with unpaid giveaways skewed to the wealthy and big corporations, and now Congressional Republicans are proposing another $5.5 trillion in tax cuts skewed to the rich, while raising taxes on millions of middle-class families,” Michael Kikukawa, a White House spokesperson, told The Post.

“President Biden is fighting to lower the deficit by $3 trillion by making the richest Americans and big corporations pay their fair share—all while cutting taxes for the middle class and never raising taxes on households earning less than $400,000.”

The US is an outlier among the major industrial economies. Europe’s economy failed to expand by the end of last year.

The 20 countries that use the euro as a currency have not shown significant growth since the third quarter of 2022 — and even then the economy grew at just 0.5%. The eurozone grew 0.5% for the full year in 2023, while the US grew 2.5%.

China, the world’s second largest economy, said late Monday it grew a surprisingly strong 5.3% despite an ongoing property crisis. Russia, which remains mired in its invasion of Ukraine, has managed to withstand Western sanctions. Its economy is projected to grow at a 3.2% clip.

Weitz take: This is one I need to be a bit cynical and super straight forward on. 1) Do I think the USA can't keep 'printing money' (which is exactly what we do). No - I think we can and will. Frankly, most monetary systems are a bit of a ponzi scheme (that's something they don't teach you your school books). The biggest issue with this is WHO is SAYING THIS, WHAT THEY ARE SAYING and WHAT IT COULD MEAN. 

For most of our lifetimes, our status as the major reserve currency of the world gives us the ability to print money without any major repercussions globally without having to deal with what should arguably be a weakened currency. 

For the betterment of the US, we have held that status since the end of World War II. (see more on this concept here). The IMF controls which currencies make up this basket of currency that controls much of global trade. If they decide, for instance, that the Chinese Renminbi is a safer currency, the dynamics of all this would change and change dramtically. We couldn't print at infinitum without facing a severally weakened dollar in such a case. At the time of this writing, multiple countries making up the "BRIC alliance" are taking active steps to replace the dollar in this hierarchy of currency relevance. Frankly, this is by far the most important issue for the future of this country but we have too busy arguing about social issues that won't mean a darn thing if our currency collapses. 





 

Friday, March 15, 2024

Everett, WA Proposal for new multi-purpose stadium

 

EVERETT NEW STADIUM

 A local story here for those in my community. The city of Everett is taking significant steps to determine a potential stadium in downtown Everett. 

See below article link as well as a copy of the potential sites found on the Everett City Website below. 




EVERETT — The City Council unanimously approved creating a new committee Wednesday to conduct in-depth research and advise city leaders

Three options are on the table:

1)            upgrade the current Funko Field,

2)           demolish and build a new stadium on the current property, or

3)           construct a new stadium downtown near the Angel of the Winds Arena.

Everett needs significant upgrades to meet the new MLB standards. The city would be at risk of losing the minor league team if efforts to upgrade the stadium aren’t well underway by 2025.

The project could cost between $40 million and $80 million, according to figures presented by an outside consultant hired to work on the project.

For more information on Everett Commercial Real Estate, consider contacting an Everett Commercial Real Estate Broker


NY Landlord Rudin sees positive for CRE


 Bill Rudin sees positivity in the office market. He's mostly focused on NY city.

As we try to remain as neutral as possible despite our fairly negative / cautious outlook, it's important to look at the situation from all angles and make sure we look at all the 'pieces of the puzzle'. 

Weitz: My thoughts on this interview is 1) he leans on a lot of anecdotal evidence which I can't stand. "18 new Broadway shows are coming"; "we signed a lease". One perception doesn't make a big picture reality. I don't think we are going to truly see the the office issue resolved for years until we settle into a new normal with the work from home vs. hybrid vs 5 days in the office. This will vary industry by industry and company by company, but overall, I have to think management teams generally will want to lower their office footprint while also creating a office culture.


Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Janet Yellan warns inflation decline may not be "smooth"




Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Interview release today. 


 

"Once rents cycle through, inflation will come down more"... "it take awhile for that to filter into the Consumer Price Index ('CPI'). 

Later in the interview, she said "I wouldn't expect this to be a  smooth path month to month, but the trend is clearly favorable". 

WEITZ: Let me interpret this... "(commercial) rents are falling, thus our current 'Consumer Price Index' / CPI numbers are crap. We are actually in more of a deflationary/ stagflation environment...but we are hiding the ball from the American public for whatever reason". 

I hate to say this, but I have zero faith in our current leaders to navigate what I believe is coming our way. 

In the later 2000s during the last major economic crisis, we had Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson at the helm of Federal Reserve and Treasury respectively. Bernanke was a Princeton scholar on the Great Depression and Paulson was the former CEO of Goldman Sachs and carried a lot of weight on Wall Street. While I'd argue the bank bailouts benefitted the culpable parties and were thus were BS in some ways, that was the act of Congress and Obama at the time to not put guardrails on the use of the bailout funds.... Nevertheless, those two unequivocally saved us from a awful financial situation with collateral banking damage that likely would have mirrored a great depression like situation. I'm not so sure I have the same confidence in Mr. Powell or Ms. Yellen to navigate the ship if the 'waters get choppy'. 

Lets be frank - we have a debt based monetary system that can't withstand interest rates this high so if we are monitoring it based on crap CPI numbers, their analysis is equally crap and they will keep rates too high for too long.


Tuesday, March 12, 2024

CNBC - Homebuyers need to earn 80% more than in 2020 to afford a house in this market.

CNBC Article outlines the increased costs of housing in the past 4 years. 

Some key takeaways: 

Almost 4 years ago, household earning $59,000 annually could afford a new mortgage without spending more than 30% of their monthly income with a 10% down payment according to Zillow Group. 

While the typical household in 2024 makes about $81,000 / year (up from $66k), wages have not kept up with housing costs. 

Since January, 2020, the typical mortgage payment on the typical home has almost doubled, according a a senior economist at Zillow. 

Nowadays, a potential home buyers to make $106,5000 to afford a typical home.

Tight supply is another reason behind the unaffordability. 

The number of new housing  units built throughout the years has been declining and law supply is rooted in restrictive land use and zoning regulations. 

WEITZ: Nothing new here necessarily. Yes, affordability is a problem. Yes, low inventory is a key component of that. I continue to believe you will see an inventory increase as people 1) sell 2nd or 3rd homes; 2) we see distressed listings either in the form of defaults (job losses appear to be mounting); 3) divorce, 4) elderly people moving out of their homes or passing them to the next generation; or 5) people just wanting to move to a new area. 

I have a hard time seeing this entire pricing situation as sustainable. Fed Chairman Powell all but admitted he's trying to lower prices when the rate increases were established by the Fed. I personally think he's surprised by the resiliency to this point (as am I), but I don't know if he fully thought of the collateral damage that no one would sell their home with a 2.5-3% rate to buy something at 7% and thus we have created the most stagnant market of my lifetime. The next 12-24 months will be a tug of war between inventory vs. rates. If rates fall and inventory stays the same, we will see continued growth. If inventory grows and rates stay somewhat in line, I think we see some weakness in pricing in many parts of the country. If I had to bet, I'm betting on the latter of those two. I simply don't think these prices are sustainable for the average American (certainly not young american who doesn't have equity in a current home) although I certainly feel like the black sheep with that opinion these days. 

.... Time will tell. 





Friday, March 8, 2024

Biden Announces Plan to Lower Housing Costs for Working Families


In conjunction with his State of the Union address, President Biden & the White House announced A PLAN to lower housing cost for working families. 

Below are some of they points and any insights I can provide on the matter. I do my very best to keep politics out of any commentary so I'll make best efforts to be as neutral as possible in my comments. 

1. President Biden believes housing costs are too high, and significant investments are needed to address the large shortage of affordable homes inherited from his predecessor and that has been growing for more than a decade. 

Weitz- I'd agree that costs are too high for the average American. 

2. President Biden will call on Congressional Republicans to end years of inaction and pass legislation to lower costs by providing a $10,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers and people who sell their starter homes; build and renovate more than 2 million homes; and lower rental costs. 

Weitz- Is a $10,000 tax credit going to do much if you can't afford the home in the first place? 

3. Mortgage Relief Credit. President Biden is calling on Congress to pass a mortgage relief credit that would provide middle-class first-time homebuyers with an annual tax credit of $5,000 a year for two years. This is the equivalent of reducing the mortgage rate by more than 1.5 percentage points for two years on the median home, and will help more than 3.5 million middle-class families purchase their first home over the next two years. 

Weitz- This math doesn't work in Seattle area, but I like the concept. 

4. The President’s plan also calls for a new credit to unlock inventory of affordable starter homes, while helping middle-class families move up the housing ladder and empty nesters right size. Many homeowners have lower rates on their mortgages than current rates.

Weitz- How? See below. 

5. The President is calling on Congress to provide a one-year tax credit of up to $10,000 to middle-class families who sell their starter home, defined as homes below the area median home price in the county, to another owner-occupant.

Weitz - so I go from a 2.5% mortgage at $700k so I can buy a 7%+ mortgage at $700k. That's a horrible move if the credit only lasts a year. On a $700k home loan, that's $32,000  increase annually, but thanks for the $10,000 tax credit!

6. Lowering Closing Costs for Home Mortgages. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will pursue rulemaking and guidance to address anticompetitive closing costs imposed by lenders on homebuyers and homeowners.  These charges—which benefit the lender but not the borrower—can add thousands to the upfront costs of a mortgage.  Those upfront costs cut into the amount of homebuyers’ down payments and reduce homeowners’ available equity.

7. Tax Credits to Build More Housing. President Biden is calling for an expansion of the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit to build or preserve 1.2 million more affordable rental units. Renters living in these properties save hundreds of dollars each month on their rent compared with renters with similar incomes who rent in the unsubsidized market.

8. Innovation Fund for Housing Expansion. The President is unveiling a new $20 billion competitive grant fund as part of his Budget to support communities across the country to build more housing and lower rents and homebuying costs. This fund would support the construction of affordable multifamily rental units; incentivize local actions to remove unnecessary barriers to housing development; pilot innovative models to increase the production of affordable and workforce rental housing; and spur the construction of new starter homes for middle-class families. 

Weitz - intrigued by this as would be my developer contacts. I have to say its a bit concerning that this is 1/3 of what many want to send to Ukraine.

9. Fighting Rent Gouging by Corporate Landlords. The Biden-Harris Administration is taking action to combat egregious rent increases and other unfair practices that are driving up rents.

I've keep an eye on this. I'll never be made a tax credits, but this doesn't seem to solve the issue although the grant program seems very intriguing. 



Thursday, March 7, 2024

Fed Chairman Powell speaks at Senate Committee Hearing


 

While I'd expect exactly zero people to watch this 2.5 hour video, Chairman Powell sat for his "Semiannual Monetary Report to Congress".

Below are the highlights: 

The hearing comes after he told lawmakers on Wednesday that the central bank’s policy-setting committee still isn’t convinced that continued progress toward their 2% inflation objective is “assured,” and that it won’t make sense to cut interest rates until it is confident.

Powell told the House Financial Services Committee that he still expects cuts to come this year.

Powell noted that the inflation situation has “eased notably” over the past year, without any significant spikes in unemployment. The labor market remains “relatively tight” even as surging immigration has made more workers available.

The central bank head's testimony hit the same notes the public has heard from officials in recent weeks following the Federal Open Market Committee’s January meeting.


WEITZ - Simply put, I have zero faith the Fed will get this right. They were wrong about inflation being "transitory" and they will be wrong about sticking a soft landing. Time will tell, but I expect housing to start seeing trouble in '24 and the following years to be tough sledding....and that doesn't take into account the $1 Trillion in CRE loans that need to dealt with this year. 

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Wednesday, March 6, 2024

RXR CEO Scott Rechler Commercial Real Estate Update



Interview with RXR CEO Scott Rechler. He points out many of the issues I've discussed in the past few months. A detailed overview as well as my commentary can be found below.

"A trillion dollars of commercial loans are coming due this year". 

"The slow motion train wreck hasn't 'left the station". 

"The challenges haven't been dealt with".

Occupancy rates down 20% on office space. 

"There has to be acknowledgement of prices. The values being used by banks are in flux. 

The smaller and regional banks are facing the biggest hurdle. 

Banks referenced include KeyCorp (KEY), ZIONS Bancorp (ZION), M&T Bank (MTB), PNC Financial (PNC). 

WEITZ: Mr. Rechler always brings a great, well thought out honest take. There is nothing here that I would disagree with. Its going to take awhile for all of this to play out.

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Thursday, February 29, 2024

Macy's to close 150 stores - CRE effects

Bisnow.com: Macy's released a statement that they will be closing 150 stores nationwide over the next 3 years.

My immediate reaction was "there are 150 Macy's stores in the US?!

Indeed - as of Jan, 2024, there were 507 stores in the US. To close 150 is a pretty bold move, and one would imagine that is just the stores where leases are expiring. 

It also poses a significant question on large retail shopping centers. I'm the last to be considered a shopping expert, but all the Macy's stores I'm aware of are THE or one of the flagships of every mall/ shopping center they are in. That's certainly the case locally in Seattle and Bellevue. Whose big enough in the retail world to fill these spaces? What can the landlord do to somehow utilize all this lost space. I imagine it will take a tremendous amount for alterations to get these spaces functional again. 

Below are the key points and my comments. 

Macy's will close 150 stores nationwide over the next three years as part of a plan meant to right the ship for the storied retailer, which has struggled in recent years, particularly since the pandemic.

The first 50 stores are scheduled to close by the end of the fiscal year, Macy's said, with the rest of the closures occurring by the end of 2026. The statement also mentioned the monetization of $600M to $750M of assets by the end of 2026, indicating the potential sale of properties.


The impacted stores account for 25% of the company's square footage but just 10% of sales.

When the closures are complete, Macy's will be left with about 350 stores, just over half its pre-pandemic store count. The company announced a similar in February 2020, closing 125 stores in the three years that followed.

Weitz- franky, this feels like it may be a slow play to avoid BK and allow time for shareholders to get out/ retain value before closing shop for good. Perhaps that's just the skeptic in me. 

The company also announced a pivot toward its luxury brands, Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury. The renewed focus on these brands is expected to result in 15 new Bloomingdale's locations and 30 Bluemercury stores in the next three years. Another 30 existing Bluemercury stores are slated for remodeling. 

The move comes amid slumping sales for the legacy department store chain, as well as a looming proxy fight for Macy's with Arkhouse Management, which nominated a slate of nine directors for Macy's 14-person board not long after the retailer rejected a bid by Arkhouse and Brigade Capital Management to go private.

The real prize in taking the company private would likely be its real estate. Macy's is worth billions more than the $5.8B Arkhouse and its partner put forward, mainly because of its prime real estate.

Last year, Macy's net sales dropped 5.5% compared to 2022, and  2comparable store sales were down 6% year-over-year. The chain experienced a loss of $71M in 2023, down from a net income of $105M in022. For the fourth quarter of 2023, net sales were off 1.7% compared with a year earlier, and comparable store sales dropped 4.2%.

Macy's faces the same headwinds as the entire department store sector, which has been slowly contracting for years. In January, department stores suffered a 6.7% drop in sales compared to a year earlier according to the Census Bureau. 

Weitz- I have a feeling this won't be the last story like this. We will follow what we think will be a wild ride in the coming years as best we can for our readers with no political agenda.  

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Tuesday, February 20, 2024

Office Market Optimism?

Bisnow.com article on “Optimism for office market”. Despite my typical negative commentary on the intermediate future for CRE and the economy, I also do my best to remain as neutral as I can be. As such, here’s an article on optimism for the office market from Bisnow.com.

AP- Though sentiment around the office market has sunk drastically, some economists believe that the fears of an urban 'doom loop' might be too extreme.

Although the office market has faced record-high vacancies and falling values, experts on a panel at the National Association for Business Economics conference in Washington, D.C., this week said there are several signs that major cities can avoid financial crisisMarket Watch reported.

“Intellectually, based on the data, we’ve concluded no doom loop fears here. The industry can make its way through,” Moody’s Analytics Deputy Chief Economist Cristian deRitis said at the event, according to Market Watch. “There is quite a bit of capital in the system. The distribution of CRE loans is not just concentrated in banks."

Erin Patterson, global co-head of research and strategy for real estate at Manulife Investment Management, said there are other financing options out there that are helping and banks have been open to working with borrowers to create value for office buildings.

“That’s an escape hatch from this doom loop,” Patterson said at the event, according to Market Watch. 

The term "doom loop" comes from the vicious cycle that occurs when people begin to leave cities, which leads businesses to close and cities to lose tax revenue. This, in turn, leads these cities to cut services and raise taxes further driving people out. 

Other economists think this possibility should be taken more seriously, as it could lead to devastating impacts on major metro economies.  

As the remote work trend continues, people aren't coming into downtown offices at the same levels as they did pre-pandemic, which has caused office values to drop and led to economic pain in many major cities. 

"These commercial property tax revenues are an important component of the budget of local governments, which means less money for police departments, trash collection and some people are going to decide that the quality of life has deteriorated too much and they want out," Columbia Business School professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh said last month on 60 Minutes.

Van Nieuwerburgh added that the top 10 U.S. cities have lost over 2 million residents in the last three years, taking with them the tax revenue that these cities rely on.

Boston is projected to face a $1.5B revenue shortfall in the next five years due to declining office values, a new report found this week, while D.C. has seen a 'shocking' plunge in office values and is expected to lose hundreds of millions in tax revenues. 

Weitz Take: This article is pretty funny. The title and start give an ‘opinion’ that things may turn out fine, and then goes on to cite data that would objectively lead to a very different conclusion. In an effort to be positive, I’ll say that the next few years will vary market to market so to paint a broad stroke of doom and gloom would be irrational. I think there are some smaller submarkets that could perform well that have untapped potential as of now.

For instance, my area of Snohomish County, WA, while I don’t believe it will be immune from all negativity has considerable room to grow given current zoning opportunities as well as companies looking for more affordable space than what they could find in areas of Seattle, Bellevue, Etc.

For more information on Snohomish County Commercial Real Estate, consider contacting a Snohomish County Commercial Real Estate broker.

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