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Mock Drawing - Eblem Snohomish |
A major multifamily developer is betting on Snohomish County’s housing demand with a new mixed-use project that could bring nearly 300 apartments to the area.
My Career and My passion: Economic, Financial & Legal insights. These are my opinions only and not meant to be relied upon. Respectful disagreement encouraged.
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Mock Drawing - Eblem Snohomish |
Housing & Real Estate · May 2026
Filings are rising sharply statewide, here's what the data says, and what homeowners can do.
Based on ATTOM Data Solutions, Washington State Legislature & Redfin · May 4, 2026
For years, Washington homeowners enjoyed a kind of insulation from national housing stress. High demand, tight inventory, and pandemic-era protections kept foreclosure numbers calm. That insulation is wearing thin.
Nationally, 118,727 properties recorded a foreclosure filing in Q1 2026, up 26% from a year prior. Bank repossessions surged 45% year-over-year in the same period. Washington was flagged specifically as one of a handful of states where repossessions more than doubled annually, alongside Colorado, Alabama, Oregon, and Florida.
Washington's own trajectory reflects this: Q1 2025 saw 1,147 new filings, a 38% year-over-year jump, and the trend has accelerated since. This is happening against a backdrop of a still-pricey market: the state's median home price sits near $646,000, nearly twice the national average.
Three forces have converged. First, pandemic-era forbearance and moratoriums are long over. The average foreclosure now takes 577 days to complete, down 14% from last year, as courts and servicers clear the backlog. Second, elevated mortgage rates and rising insurance, property tax, and HOA costs are squeezing household budgets. Third, inflation has eroded purchasing power, and for many homeowners, one unexpected expense is enough to tip the balance.
"The continued rise, particularly in starts and bank repossessions, points to building pressure in parts of the market." — Rob Barber, CEO, ATTOM
Washington's Foreclosure Fairness Program (FFP) is one of the country's more robust homeowner protections. Since 2012, more than 78,000 state residents have remained in their homes through its counseling and mediation services. In 2024 alone, the state's Homeownership Resource Center served 12,000 homeowners in distress.
In 2025, the legislature strengthened the program through SB 5686, expanding mediation access to HOA and condo owners, and establishing a new $80 fee on residential mortgage originations expected to generate ~$7 million annually for the program.
This is not 2008. Strong equity positions, tighter underwriting, and robust state protections mean widespread collapse is unlikely. But the trend line is real and has been building for more than a year. With 181 foreclosed properties currently listed for sale in Washington, the pipeline is growing. Markets outside the Seattle metro corridor, where price buffers are thinner, are the most exposed.
If you own, develop, or invest in commercial real estate in Washington State — and especially in the fast-growing Snohomish County market — a landmark piece of legislation passed in early 2025 deserves your full attention. House Bill 1403, Washington's new condo liability reform law, may be the single biggest policy shift for mixed-use development that this region has seen in decades.
At Weitz Commercial, we work with investors, developers, landlords, and tenants across Snohomish County and the greater Puget Sound region every day. The question we're already hearing from clients is simple: Does this change anything for me? The answer, in most cases, is yes — and understanding how can give you a meaningful edge in this market.
For years, Washington State carried one of the most developer-unfriendly condo liability regimes in the country. Under the old Washington Condominium Act, a developer could be exposed to construction defect lawsuits for up to eight years after the last unit was sold — and the standard for what counted as a "defect" was remarkably low. Plaintiff attorneys became adept at filing suits over technical workmanship violations that had no real impact on a building's function or a homeowner's quality of life.
The result was predictable: developers stopped building condos. Why absorb a decade-long liability tail when you could build apartments, collect rent, and retain ownership? The for-sale multifamily market in Washington's urban cores — including Everett, Marysville, Monroe, and the broader Snohomish County growth corridors — effectively dried up.
This mattered enormously for commercial real estate. Mixed-use development — ground-floor retail or office space below residential units — is the economic engine of walkable, high-density corridors. Without condos as a viable product type, mixed-use projects became harder to finance, less attractive to investors, and less likely to pencil out in secondary markets like Snohomish County.
Signed into law in 2025, House Bill 1403 makes several targeted but significant changes to Washington's condo liability framework:
Snohomish County sits at an inflection point. Population is growing, land is cheaper than King County, and infrastructure investment — from the Lynnwood Link light rail extension to the expansion of the Highway 2 and US-2 corridors — is attracting new business activity. The county has long been viewed as a bedroom community to Seattle and Bellevue, but that narrative is changing.
HB 1403 accelerates that shift in several concrete ways:
For years, the standard model for mixed-use development in Washington was: build apartments above retail, never condos. That kept the developer on the hook as a long-term landlord and limited the pool of equity partners willing to fund projects. With reduced liability exposure, condo-over-retail mixed-use projects in Everett's downtown core, Marysville's Highway 528 corridor, and Lynnwood's transit-oriented development zone become much more attractive to developers and the investors who back them.
More condo development means more rooftops — and more rooftops are the single most important driver of ground-floor retail demand. Restaurant operators, service retailers, medical and dental offices, and fitness concepts all follow residential density. For owners of commercial strip centers, downtown storefronts, or flex spaces in Snohomish County, this legislation is a tailwind.
The private insurance provision for projects of up to 12 units is particularly meaningful in Snohomish County, where many of the most promising development opportunities are mid-scale urban infill sites — not the 200-unit high-rises you see in downtown Seattle. Small condo buildings of 6–12 units in Monroe, Edmonds, or Bothell can now move forward with a cleaner risk profile, opening the door to a new class of local developer.
Washington's 2025 Transit-Oriented Development law (HB 1491) requires cities to allow denser development near major transit stops. Paired with HB 1403, this creates a powerful one-two punch: more density is legally required, and the primary residential product type that supports commercial mixed-use is now financially viable to build. Snohomish County transit nodes — including the new Lynnwood City Center Link station — are primed to benefit.
If you currently own or are considering acquiring commercial property in Snohomish County, here are the strategic questions this legislation should prompt:
HB 1403 is a significant step forward, but it isn't a silver bullet. Washington's condo market won't transform overnight. Construction costs remain elevated. Interest rates continue to affect buyer purchasing power and developer financing. And not every jurisdiction in Snohomish County has updated its zoning code to reflect the state's broader housing legislation.
A note on the insurance mechanism: The new warranty-backed insurance product for projects under 12 units is still developing as a market. Developers should work closely with legal counsel and experienced commercial real estate advisors before structuring a deal around assumptions about insurance availability or pricing.
Additionally, keep an eye on Washington's rent stabilization legislation (HB 1217), which passed in 2025 and caps annual rent increases on residential units. While commercial leases are not affected, landlords of mixed-use properties with residential components will need to factor these new rules into their underwriting and long-term hold projections.
Washington's new condo liability law won't make headlines the way a major acquisition or a new corporate campus announcement might. But for anyone paying close attention to the commercial real estate market in Snohomish County, it's the kind of structural change that quietly reshapes opportunity over the next five to ten years.
More mixed-use development. More ground-floor retail demand. More density near transit. More viable paths for small infill developers. These are the downstream effects of a law that, on the surface, looks like a technical fix to an insurance and liability problem.
If you want to understand how these shifts affect the specific properties, corridors, or submarkets you're focused on, that's exactly the kind of conversation we have every day at Weitz Commercial.
Commercial real estate moves fast, and the policy landscape that shapes it moves with it. I've spent my career tracking both — helping clients in Snohomish County and across the Puget Sound region navigate acquisitions, dispositions, leasing, and investment decisions with clarity and confidence.
Whether you're a seasoned investor reassessing your portfolio, a business owner evaluating your next location, or a developer exploring what the new legislative environment makes possible, I'd genuinely enjoy the conversation. The opportunities in this market are real — and so are the complexities. Let's talk through both.
Investment Outlook · Snohomish County · 2026
While King County's office towers empty and industrial vacancy climbs, Snohomish County is quietly assembling one of the most compelling commercial real estate investment narratives in the Pacific Northwest.
There's a version of the Pacific Northwest commercial real estate story that focuses on what's broken: the hollowed-out office towers of downtown Seattle, the sublease avalanche that followed the tech sector's contraction, the industrial vacancy that swelled as speculative supply outran demand. That story is real — but it's not the whole story.
Forty miles north of Seattle's struggle, Snohomish County commercial real estate is telling a different one. The county that anchors Washington's aerospace economy, that stretches from the waterfront in Everett to the forests of the Cascades, is entering a period of concentrated infrastructure investment, civic redevelopment, and sustained commercial demand that is drawing serious attention from investors who've been priced out of — or burned by — King County.
This is the investment case for Snohomish County commercial real estate in 2026.
The single most important driver of commercial real estate value over the next decade in Snohomish County isn't a market trend — it's a capital program. Three major infrastructure investments are converging simultaneously, and each one creates a distinct set of opportunities for investors paying attention now, before the market fully prices them in.
"At its core, this is an economic development project. A new facility downtown that can host baseball, soccer, concerts and other events, plus include a public park, has significant positive benefits — not just economically but also for quality of life."
— Simone Tarver, spokesperson, City of Everett
Each of the four major asset classes plays a distinct role in Snohomish County's investment landscape, and the risk/opportunity balance differs meaningfully across them.
| Sector | Key metric | Signal | Primary driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial / Flex | $0.70–1.00/SF NNN | Buy | Most affordable in Puget Sound; aerospace & logistics demand |
| Office | 10.7% vacancy | Stable | Healthcare, professional services, government — not tech-exposed |
| Retail | Low vacancy (grocery-anchored) | Selective | Neighborhood-serving & transit-corridor formats outperform |
| Multifamily | +12% metro sales vol. Q1 '26 | Strong | Homeownership affordability gap driving sustained rental demand |
If there is a single sector where Snohomish County industrial real estate investment case is most compelling, it is industrial. The county offers the lowest warehouse rents in the Puget Sound metro — $0.70 to $1.00 per square foot NNN monthly — while remaining within the economic orbit of one of America's most dynamic regional economies. For logistics tenants, light manufacturers, and aerospace supply chain operators being squeezed out of South King County, Snohomish County is increasingly the destination of choice.
Northwest Washington industrial sales volume surged 49% year-over-year through the end of 2025, reflecting a significant rerating of the region's attractiveness. Construction of new speculative industrial space has slowed meaningfully, reducing future supply pressure — and the industry consensus heading into 2026 is that the market is approaching a vacancy floor. For investors willing to commit now, this may be one of the last windows to acquire at favorable pricing before conditions tighten again.
For investors focused on retail, hospitality, and mixed-use, Everett commercial real estate represents a specific and time-sensitive opportunity. The combination of the new stadium, the expanding waterfront, Angel of the Winds Arena, and the Sounder commuter rail line creates a critical mass of foot traffic drivers that few secondary markets can match.
The stadium project alone is expected to generate millions in annual economic activity. The city is targeting 30-year leases with the AquaSox and two USL soccer teams, is designed to host 50-plus days of city events annually, and includes an urban park and walking loop — a genuine public amenity that drives daily use beyond game days. Ground-floor commercial, food and beverage, and hospitality assets in the blocks surrounding this cluster are positioned to benefit from the activation that follows.
The waterfront is already demonstrating the model. The Port of Everett's Waterfront Place has transformed a legacy industrial site into a multi-restaurant dining destination that draws visitors from across the county. Restaurant Row now includes established local and regional operators and has seen consistent expansion in recent years — with tenant interest far outpacing available space.
The airport angle: Paine Field's planned expansion to 12 additional gates and a 239,000 SF terminal is a direct commercial catalyst for the surrounding area. Hotel development, car rental facilities, food and beverage, and business park demand adjacent to an expanding commercial airport are well-documented patterns — and the land around Paine Field remains affordable relative to Sea-Tac's built-out surroundings. Investors who established positions near Sea-Tac in its expansion phase reaped significant returns. The playbook is available for Paine Field.
Light rail's commercial real estate effect is well-documented and substantial. Research from the University of Minnesota found that retail businesses located within a mile of light rail stations saw an 88% increase in knowledge-sector businesses and a 40% increase in service-sector businesses compared to car-accessible areas alone.
Snohomish County is at the beginning of this curve. Light rail reached Mountlake Terrace and Lynnwood in August 2024 — and the Everett Link Extension is in environmental review, with station areas already being rezoned for transit-oriented development under the county's new Light Rail Community zoning framework. Investors who acquire commercial property in Snohomish County in designated LRC zones now, before the final EIS confirms station locations and construction begins, are positioning for the appreciation that historically follows rail infrastructure commitments.
Snohomish County's commercial real estate investment case in 2026 is built on a rare convergence: the lowest industrial rents in the Puget Sound metro, one of the region's healthiest office markets, a waterfront in active transformation, a new multi-sport stadium targeting a 2027 opening, an expanding commercial airport, and a light rail extension that is beginning to re-rate land values along its corridor.
None of these catalysts is speculative in isolation — each is backed by public capital commitments, private investment, and demonstrated tenant demand. The question for investors is not whether the county is on an upward trajectory, but whether they can acquire assets before that trajectory is fully reflected in pricing. If you're exploring opportunities, Weitz Commercial specializes in Snohomish County commercial real estate brokerage and investment advisory.
By most measures, that window is still open. But infrastructure of this scale doesn't stay under the radar indefinitely.
Ready to explore Snohomish County?
Weitz Commercial is a full-service Snohomish County commercial real estate brokerage specializing in investment sales, leasing, and advisory services across industrial, office, retail, and multifamily assets.
www.weitzcommercial.com · 2716 Colby Ave, Everett WA 98201 · Scott@weitzcommercial.com · (206) 306-4034
Seattle's office market has collapsed to 36% vacancy. Here's what the numbers looked like before — and what they'd need to reach before landlords and tenants could call it a recovery.
If you follow commercial real estate in the Pacific Northwest, you've become numb to headlines about rising office vacancy. Downtown Seattle has crossed 36%. The Eastside sits above 21%. Even Tacoma — long considered a stable, secondary market — is running above 17%. But what does "bad" actually mean in context? And what would "healthy" look like if it returned?
The answer starts with understanding where the market was before everything changed.
In 2019, the Seattle region's office vacancy rate hit a cycle low of just 5.79%, according to Kidder Mathews data. That figure represented a genuinely tight market — one where tenants had few options, landlords held pricing power, and new construction was racing to keep up with tech-driven demand from Amazon, Microsoft, and dozens of high-growth startups.
For context, commercial real estate professionals generally treat the 5–10% range as a "healthy" equilibrium for a major metro office market. Below 5% tips into undersupply, driving rents higher and squeezing tenants. Above 10–12%, the balance shifts toward tenants. And above 15–20%, you're in a market where landlords are offering months of free rent, heavy tenant improvement allowances, and still waiting months to fill space.
"Seattle's office vacancy rate is now above 33% in the central business district. It was around 8% before the pandemic."
Not all vacancy rates are equal — and the appropriate benchmark shifts slightly depending on market size and character. Here's a practical framework for interpreting office vacancy:
| Vacancy range | Market condition | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|
| 0–5% | Undersupplied | Landlords strongly favored; rents rising fast |
| 5–10% | Healthy / balanced | Fair terms for both landlords and tenants |
| 10–15% | Softening | Tenants gaining leverage; concessions increasing |
| 15–20% | Elevated stress | Tenants in control; free rent and TI allowances common |
| 20%+ | Distress | Deep concessions; landlord refinancing risk; values falling |
By that framework, the Seattle CBD at 36.5% isn't just in "distress" — it's in territory that has no modern precedent outside of cities experiencing structural economic decline. And unlike, say, Detroit or Cleveland, Seattle's fundamentals haven't collapsed: employment is diversified, the tech sector is evolving rather than shrinking, and the residential population downtown continues to grow.
The vacancy picture varies enormously across the state's major office markets, and the further you move from Seattle's tech-heavy core, the healthier the numbers become.
The pattern is striking. Snohomish County, at 10.7%, sits just above the top of the healthy range — and has actually seen its vacancy rate tick slightly downward over the past year, even as King County's numbers continued climbing. Whatcom and Skagit, further removed from the tech economy that drove Seattle's boom and bust, never overbuilt and are now among the most landlord-favorable office markets in the state.
The math of returning Seattle to a healthy vacancy rate is sobering. At current absorption rates — which have been negative or near-zero for most of the past four years — absorbing enough space to bring downtown vacancy from 36% back to a healthy 8–10% would require either years of positive net absorption, meaningful conversion of office buildings to other uses, or some combination of both.
There are some early green shoots. The pace of vacancy increase has slowed noticeably since 2023. Sublease availability, which peaked at alarming levels, has been declining steadily and is now at its lowest share since 2018. Positive net absorption was recorded for the first time in over three years in late 2025. And Seattle's emerging position as a hub for AI companies — ranking third among U.S. metros for AI industry growth — is generating genuine new leasing demand.
The bottom line: For a major tech-heavy metro like Seattle, a vacancy rate in the 8–10% range represents equilibrium. At 5.8% in 2019, the market was actually overheated. At 36.5% today, it's in historic distress. The good news: vacancy increases are decelerating, AI leasing is real, and the suburban markets — particularly Snohomish County — never lost their footing at all. Recovery will be measured in years, not quarters. But the direction is beginning to change.
The Reverse 1031 Exchange
We recently had a client need a reverse 1031 exchange.... so we figured a blog may in order as it's a foreign concept to many.
What is it?
Buy first, sell later — and still defer your taxes.
A standard 1031 exchange lets you sell an investment property and defer capital gains taxes by rolling the proceeds into a new one. The catch: you have to sell first. In a competitive market, that means potentially losing a great deal while you wait. The reverse 1031 exchange solves that problem, you buy the replacement property first, then sell your existing one.
How it works
Because IRS rules don’t allow you to hold title to both properties at once, a third party called an Exchange Accommodation Titleholder (EAT) — temporarily holds the new property while you sell the old one. Once the sale closes, the exchange is complete and you take full title. This structure is IRS-approved under Revenue Procedure 2000-37.
Key deadlines
• 45 days to identify the property you’re selling
• 180 days to complete the full exchange
Both clocks start when the EAT takes title. Miss either and the tax deferral is void.
Pros and cons
The main advantage is flexibility, you can act on a great property immediately without being forced to sell first. The downsides are cost and complexity: EAT fees, legal costs, and lender unfamiliarity can make the process more involved than a standard forward exchange. You also need enough liquidity to carry two properties temporarily.
Bottom line
A reverse 1031 exchange is best suited for investors who’ve found a deal they can’t afford to lose and have the capital to execute on. The added cost is real, but so is the tax deferral. Always work with a qualified intermediary and tax advisor before proceeding. We have those if you need them.
For more information on Snohomish County Commercial Real Estate brokerage and investment, you can reach us at:
Scott@weitzcommercial.com
t: (206) 306-4034
Washington’s Proposed Millionaires Tax: What Commercial Real Estate Investors Should Know
Washington State has long been known as one of the few states with no personal income tax, a feature that has historically attracted entrepreneurs, investors, and commercial real estate developers.
That policy may be facing its biggest challenge yet.
In 2026, Washington lawmakers advanced a proposal commonly referred to as the “Washington Millionaires Tax,” which would impose a 9.9% tax on income above $1 million per year. If adopted and upheld by the courts, it would represent the first broad personal income tax in Washington State history.
For commercial real estate investors in Washington, the proposal raises important questions about taxation, investment strategy, and the long-term business climate in the state.
The current proposal focuses on very high-income households.
Highlights of the proposal include:
Tax Rate: 9.9%
Income Threshold: Income above $1 million annually
Who Pays: High-income individuals and households
Estimated Revenue: $3–4 billion per year
Projected Start: 2028 implementation with collections beginning in 2029
For example, if an investor reports $1.5 million in annual income, the tax would apply only to the amount above $1 million.
That means the taxable portion would be $500,000, resulting in an estimated $49,500 state tax under the proposal.
Supporters of the measure argue that Washington’s tax system relies heavily on sales tax, which tends to affect lower-income households more heavily.
The revenue from the proposed tax would likely fund programs such as:
Early childhood education
Childcare assistance
School meal programs
Expansion of the Working Families Tax Credit
The broader goal is to make Washington’s tax structure more progressive by shifting part of the tax burden to higher-income earners.
The biggest hurdle for a Washington income tax is the state constitution.
For decades, Washington courts have interpreted income as a form of property. Because the state constitution requires property taxes to be uniform, previous attempts at implementing a graduated income tax have failed.
As a result, most observers expect that if the law passes, it will immediately face a constitutional challenge in the courts.
Many analysts believe the legislation is partly designed to prompt a new ruling from the Washington Supreme Court, potentially revisiting the state’s historic interpretation of income taxes.
Although the proposed tax targets only high-income households, it could still affect many commercial real estate investors, developers, and syndicators.
Most real estate investments are structured through LLCs, partnerships, and other pass-through entities.
This means income flows directly to the investor’s personal tax return.
For investors involved in:
Property development
Value-add repositioning
Syndications
Large asset sales
a profitable year could easily push income above the $1 million threshold, triggering the proposed tax.
Washington’s lack of an income tax has historically helped attract investors from higher-tax states like California and Oregon.
If a broad income tax eventually survives court challenges, it could influence:
Investor relocation decisions
Where investment funds are domiciled
Long-term capital allocation
However, because the tax applies only to very high income levels, the broader market impact remains uncertain.
Washington already implemented a 7% capital gains tax on gains above $250,000 beginning in 2022. Real estate transactions are generally exempt from that tax.
However, certain types of investment income and partnership distributions may still be impacted by the proposed millionaires income tax, depending on how income is structured.
For real estate investors, this means tax structuring and entity planning may become increasingly important.
Even if the legislation ultimately passes, the timeline would likely unfold over several years.
A realistic sequence could look like this:
The Washington Legislature passes the bill
Legal challenges are filed almost immediately
Courts review the constitutionality of the tax
The Washington Supreme Court ultimately decides the issue
Because of this process, the proposed tax would likely not take effect until the late 2020s, if it survives legal review at all.
For now, the proposed Washington Millionaires Tax remains uncertain and faces significant legal hurdles.
However, commercial real estate investors should keep an eye on the proposal because it could eventually affect:
Pass-through income from real estate investments
Large property sale profits
Syndication and investment structures
Long-term investment decisions in Washington State
While the policy debate continues in Olympia and the courts, one thing remains clear: tax policy is becoming an increasingly important part of real estate investment strategy.
For more information on Commercial Real Estate Investing in Snohomish County, feel free to reach out and set up a call or meeting.
Weitz Commercial
2716 Colby Ave
Everett, WA 98201
t: 206.306.4034
Scott@Weitzcommercial.com