Goldman Sachs says 'recession' now unlikely

 

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist interviewed about recession possibilities: His rationale is based on the following "Better Data”: 

a.      Retail Sales up 0.3%

b.     Decline in Jobless claims

c.      Earnings reports from Q2 – positive commentary on the consumer

WEITZ- This is so aggravating. Goldman Sachs is treated as the bellwether of the economic world and even these ‘best and brightest’ have trouble in avoiding reactionary thought rather than predictive thought.

According to Attom, July foreclosure data are up 15% from a month ago and that's with no real depreciation in RE as of yet.

U.S. Foreclosure Activity Sees a Monthly Increase in July 2024 (attomdata.com)

 ….and that’s the tip of the iceberg. As I’ve outlined for months, CRE defaults are ‘off the charts’, interest rates remain unsustainably high, and inventory is increasing in the residential market(s) generally. I simply refuse to believe that we can skirt by all of these macro factors without significant market weakens - I don’t see a path out of this where a recession can be avoided, and I’d suggest it may even become a late 2007-2009 situation (or worse depending on governmental reaction or lack thereof).

Perhaps I'll be the one with 'egg on my face', but I don't see this aging well for Goldman Sachs and their spot as 'top dogs' on Wall Street... although, let's be frank, the accountability on Wall Street has been virtually non-existent since the late 2000 crisis.