It's been a while since I posted anything. I've done some traveling
overseas and spent some time in the hospital (all is well now) ...anyways, it's
been a hectic month to say the least, but we are back and headed full steam
into election season 2024 and the Harris/ Trump election appears to be one for
the ages.
I've been looking for the last week or so and can't find
hardly any articles or stats on inventory. My sense on a local level and in
dealing with a lot of real estate brokers is that inventory seems to be
increasing. If you have read this blog at all, you know that inventory is the
main thing I'm looking at in determining the direction of the market. Frankly,
it's a bit odd. I have about 10 sources I generally go to for stats/ data and
none of them have any Real Estate news of substance. It's almost as if it's being
shielded during the election for some reason. Nevertheless, since I have access
to the Washington MLS, I thought I would pull their most recent published
figures and report on those....so here we go...my feedback will follow. I have
simply copied and pasted from their website....
September 2024 NWMLS Key Takeaways
Active
and New Listings
- The
number of homes for sale increased throughout the NWMLS coverage area,
with 22 out of 26 counties seeing a double-digit year-over-year
increase.
- There
was a 31.4% increase in the total number of properties listed
for sale, with 15,748 active listings on the market at the end of
September 2024, compared to 11,983 at the end of September 2023.
- NWMLS
brokers added 8,508 new listings to the database in September 2024, an increase of 12.7% compared to September 2023 (7,551).
- The five
counties with highest increases in active inventory for sale were Douglas
(+67.8%), Pacific (+42.2%), Clallam (+41.6%), Grant (+40.5%) and San Juan
(+39.8%).
Closed
Sales
- The
number of closed sales increased by 1.9% year-over-year (5,828 in
September 2024) compared to 5,722 in September 2023.
- 11 out
of 26 counties saw an increase in the number of closed sales
year-over-year, while 15 saw a decrease.
Median
Sale Price
- Overall,
the median price for residential homes and condominiums sold in September
2024 was $635,000, an increase of 5.8% when
compared to September 2023 ($600,000).
- The
three counties with the highest median sale prices were King ($859,995),
San Juan ($829,000), and Snohomish ($760,000), and the three counties with
the lowest median sale prices were Ferry ($209,500), Adams ($270,000) and
Columbia ($325,000).
Consumer
and Broker Activity
NWMLS
also provided insights into consumer activities during the month of September
2024:
- The
total number of property showings scheduled through
NWMLS-provided software remained steady, with 119,927 showings in August
2024 and 119,900 in September 2024.
- In
September 2024, there were 16,668 listed properties that were eligible for
the Down Payment Resource (DPR) program offered by NWMLS.
Weitz take: in recent posts, I've hinted that we are at or near a market top, I will double down on that take, and I believe we start to see real softening in the coming months as sellers become more desperate to sell and move on with some of their equity. 22 of 26 have double digit increases in inventory; a 34% increase in properties for sale, etc). Whether it be retirees, or relocations, or simply a need for cash, it's bound to happen as homes are starting to sit on the market longer. The Fed is waffling on rates, but frankly, it won't matter. The difference between a 6% rate and 7% at these prices is negligible for the average American as the payment is simply HIGH regardless. Buckle up.
For more
information on Snohomish Commercial Real Estate Investing, you can reach me at Scott@WeitzCommercial.com
or text me at 206.306.4034.
