National Inventory Level on the rise

Happy Monday All, 

Per usual, I start my day with a search of all my go-to news sources for anything interesting to write about as I start the week. Apparently, the NFL has taken over the American news landscape as most of the news related around the Cowboys stinking and the Bears giving up a last second TD. But alas, we carry on and find our own news. 

I have tons of internal sources for tracking real estate locally - I can tell you exact data at time as a member of the NWMLS, but rarely do we find real data on some basic information on a national level. 

I found a great website put up by the St. Louis Fed on economic data...hard to get much more credible than that. What I found was quite interesting. If you have read this blog in the past year, you know INVENTORY is the main factor I think will determine the direction of the market. I know it's rising in my area (Washingotn State), but really wasn't sure nationally...well, we found it and it's not pretty. 

INTERACTIVE CHART HERE

Here's a general recap of the last few years...There was a low of 354,016 in February 2022 which makes sense given many areas were still on COVID lock downs, but what's happened in the last couple years is interesting....

A year later in February 2023, we jumped to 579,264 listings and then a subtle increase to 554,716 a year later in February 2024. All of that seems fairly easy to rationalize ..... 

.......But wait.... there's more..... From Feb to September of this year, we went from 664,716 to 940,980 active listings.... that's 41% increase in 7 months! ...and approximately ZERO news outlets (that I'm aware of and I follow everyone that I think is remotely competent) are talking about it. Frankly, the state of journalism in this country is a sad affair (a conversation for another day), but more importantly, this is simply more fuel to the fire that we will start to see a considerable price compression in the coming months/ years. 

So all the "expert" brokers out there banging the drum that you need to buy now, as prices will "skyrocket" when rates come down (I see you Barbara Cocoran), ask them what happens if inventory starts to rise. I'd bet the answer is silence. 

Anyways, it's just another piece of the puzzle as we follow what I believe will be a unique period in America Real Estate. Text me if you need Snohomish Commercial Real Estate help at 206.306.4034 or email at Scott@WeitzCommercial.com. 

Have a great week, 

Scott Weitz