Monday, February 12, 2024

2024 Job Losses - Jan 1 to current according to WSJ

Below is an email from a mortgage industry insider discussing trends they believe will lead to lower interest rates by the Fed. I'm focused on the job loses, and these don't take into account 1099 Contractor positions lost. These numbers are fairly staggering. Bottom line is the reality of market doesn't match up with the government data currently where they like to say we are at "record low unemployment" - I fully expect the Fed to lower rates as well, but also predict they will be 'late to party' per usual. This is what happens when you base all your decisions on reactionary bureaucratic data rather than proactive, critical thinking. 

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Hi All,


Thought you might like to see what's happening in the labor market and what that may mean to rates, inflation and the economy.  The Wall Street Journal posted a list of announced corporate layoffs since January 2024 to today. This info supports the deflationary trend we're heading into and how fast it may go.  With luck the Fed Reserve will see this scheduled decline in labor and start openly planning for lower rates.

The typical economic experience starts with job losses and then lower spending due to lack of income which inevitably leads to lower production and manufacturing.  The cycle continues until the economy is headed for, or is in, a recession or depression.  During this time and at some point, the Fed Reserve will acknowledge what's happening and then actively buy up mortgage bonds to lower mortgage interest rates and also lower the fed funds rate to "inspire" spending among companies and the public.  

The typical timeline for lower rates could be seen as: 

Economic Slowdown (indicated by layoffs and lower production) leads to  
       Central Bank Lowers Interest Rates (Monetary Policy)  leads to  
             Lower Borrowing Costs (for businesses and consumers) leads to  
                  → Lower Mortgage and Interest Rates 

And then the vicious and chaotic cycle begins again.  Only we hope the Fed will not let rates drop below 5% as 5.0% to 5.5% is a stable range and average rate seen over various timelines. 

This layoff list for February 2024 and January 2024 means the economy is still going to record significant job losses in 2024. The impact can take a few months to hit economic reports. 


These are just the big corporations reporting in.  Small businesses and those that provide services and products to these companies will be in the same downsizing mode.


February 2024

DocuSign

The e-signature company said it would lay off about 6% of its workforce, mostly from its sales and marketing teams.

Estée Lauder

The cosmetics company said it would cut up to 3,100 positions, or about 5% of its workers, following several weak quarters. 

Okta

The identification-software company is laying off 400 employees, or about 7% of its workforce, in its latest round of job cuts. 

Snap

In the Snapchat parent’s latest round of job cuts, the social-media company is reducing its workforce by about 10% to trim costs amid a soft advertising market.

Warner Music

Warner Music Group said it would cut 600 employees, or around 10% of its workforce. Chief Executive Robert Kyncl said in a note to employees that the changes would result in $200 million in annual cost savings, which would mostly be used to support the company’s core business. 

Zoom

The videoconferencing company said it would cut about 2% of its workforce. The layoffs come about a year after the company reduced its staff by 15%.


January 2024

Alphabet

Google laid off hundreds of employees in January in divisions including hardware and internal software tools, as the search giant continues to reverse its pandemic hiring spree. The company later in January said there were more layoffs to come but didn’t specify how many employees would be cut or which teams would be affected.

Amazon

The e-commerce giant is eliminating hundreds of jobs across its film and television studio and Twitch streaming platform in an effort to rein in costs. Its audiobook platform Audible and its Buy With Prime division for third-party merchants are also each cutting about 5% of their staff.

BlackRock

The world’s largest asset manager said it would layoff 600 employees, or around 3% of its total workforce. The company laid off about 3% in January 2023 as well. 

Citigroup

The bank said it would eliminate 20,000 jobs by the end of 2026 as part of a multiyear restructuring plan.

Discord

The free messaging platform popular with videogamers said it is cutting 17% of its staff.

Duolingo

 The language-learning software company cut 10% of its contractors and said it would use artificial intelligence to handle some content creation. 

EBay

The online marketplace said it would lay off about 1,000 employees, or 9% of its full-time workforce, as part of efforts to boost performance at a time of what it called rising competition and softer consumer spending.

iRobot

The smart vacuum company said it would cut 350 jobs, or 31% of its workforce, following the termination of its merger agreement with Amazon.

Macy’s

The retailer said it is eliminating 2,350 store and corporate positions, or 3.5% of its overall workforce excluding seasonal hires, to trim costs.

Microsoft

The tech company is cutting 1,900 employees, or about 8% of its videogame staff, after last year’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard. The layoffs affect less than 1% of total workforce.

PayPal

The digital payments company plans to trim 9% of its workforce this year. Last year, it said it would lay off 2,000 employees, or a 7% cut.

Rent the Runway 

The fashion subscription company said it is cutting 37 roles, or about 10% of its staff.

Salesforce

The cloud-based software company is laying off around 700 employees, or 1% of its workforce, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Sports Illustrated

The legacy sports publication announced major layoffs, according to its union, sparking turmoil at the magazine. The announcement came after Sports Illustrated’s publisher said it failed to make a payment to its licensor and lost its license to publish the magazine. 

United Parcel Service

The package-delivery giant plans to cut about 12,000 jobs this year amid a slowdown in its delivery business. The cuts will result in $1 billion in savings, UPS said.

Unity Software

The videogame company said it would lay off 1,800 employees, or about 25% of its workforce, following cuts by other game companies over the past year. 

Universal Music Group

The music company plans to lay off around 100 to 300 employees globally this year, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Wayfair

The online retailer is laying off about 1,650 employees, or 13% of its workforce, weeks after its chief executive sent a memo asking them to work harder has done several rounds of layoffs in recent years as pandemic furniture buying has cooled.

Xerox

The printer maker said it would trim its workforce by 15% had 20,500 employees at the end of 2024, according to regulatory filings.

Source WSJ - By Joseph De AvilaFollow

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