My Career and My passion: Economic, Financial & Legal insights. These are my opinions only and not meant to be relied upon. Respectful disagreement encouraged.
Friday, March 7, 2025
FHA delinquencies rise dramatically and inventory increasing across the nation
Thursday, March 6, 2025
NWMLS February Market Stats
Below are the recent stats of the NWMLS for February 2025 ...
Active Listings
- The number of homes for sale increased 39.4% year-over-year throughout the NWMLS service area. There were 10,448 active listings on the market at the end of February 2025, with 24 out of 26 counties seeing a double-digit increase compared to February 2024. When compared to the previous month, active inventory increased by 207 listings (+2%), up from 10,241 in January 2025.
- The six counties with the highest increases in active inventory were Kittitas (+76.7%), Snohomish (+65.3%), Grant (+54.2%), King (+52%), Whatcom (+48.2%) and Chelan (+42.7%).
Closed Sales
- There were 4,268 closed sales of residential homes and condominium units in February 2025, an increase of 1.9% when compared to February 2024 (4,189). When compared to the previous month, the number of closed sales increased by 14.5%, up from 3,727 sales in January 2025.
- The total dollar value of closed sales in February 2025 for residential homes was $2,856,599,410 and $463,877,754 for condominiums ($3,320,477,164 in total), an increase of 5% when compared to February 2024.
Median Sales Price
- Overall, the median price for residential homes and condominiums sold in February 2025 was $630,000, an increase of 3.6% when compared to February 2024 ($608,111).
- The three counties with the highest median sale prices were San Juan ($880,000), King ($820,000) and Snohomish ($734,975), and the three counties with the lowest median sale prices were Columbia ($224,000), Pacific $292,500) and Okanogan ($322,500).
New Construction
- NWMLS brokers reported 745 closed sales of new construction units in February 2025. This was a year-over-year decrease of 12.1% when compared to February 2024 (848 units).
- The median sales price for new construction units sold in February 2025 was $773,420, an increase of 5.9% from the February 2024 price of $730,000.
Thursday, January 30, 2025
FHA Delinquency Report
Below numbers from FHA.... this is direct cut and paste from the report I read. As I've been saying for months.... buckle up.
FHA Report on Delinquencies
The FHA’s latest report showed that 30-day mortgage delinquencies rose to 6.0% in November 2024, which is up 2.1% from the beginning of 2022.
Serious delinquencies, or those 90+ days delinquent, have also begun to rise. Within the report consumers shared the reason for not being able to make mortgage payments.
Consumers saying that they cannot make a payment due to being unemployed has risen significantly. The share reporting this back in Q4 2020 was 1.8%, which then rose to 7.7% in Q4 2023, and more recently rose to 12.1% in Q4 2024! That is a huge increase, potentially showing that the labor market may not be as strong as the published figures are showing.
Additionally, those not able to pay because of excessive obligations, or too much debt, has risen from 2.71% in Q4 2020 to 20.1% in Q4 2024.
Another sign that consumers are stretched and overloaded with debt.
Thursday, January 23, 2025
Wells Fargo CFO take on CRE
A recent article in the Puget Sound Business Journal highlighted the CFO of Wells Fargo.
Since the article is behind a pay wall, I will outline the highlights/ lowlights and give my take as usual.
CFO Mike Santomassimo had the following takes on the state of the CRE market:
"Commercial Real Estate Office fundamentals have not changed and remain weak".
"We expect CRE office losses to be "lumpy" as we continue to actively work with our clients. We are 18 months into seeing the losses materialize...we have 'quarters' to go.
Weitz - I'm laughing as I expected this article to be so much more (more terrific journalism these days), but since we've gone this far, I won't waste the quotes as as the premise is still material for our purposes.
When Bank CFOs are telling listeners on a earnings call where they typically will paint as rosy picture as possible to maintain or boost stock prices, its worth listening. Obviously, all CRE is local and some markets will fair better than others, but this general opinion matches my thoughts in that both owners and lenders and 'kicking the can' and praying for miracle to save them. At some point, they will have to take losses barring a dramatic shift. That could be very, very....very.....ugly.
As our new President takes office, I commend his pro-business mentality, but I don't see him have the power to turn the ship around for better or worse.
For more information on Snohomish Commercial Real Estate, follow this blog or shoot me an email.
Have a great weekend,
Scott Weitz
www.weitzcommercial.com
t: 206.306.4034
Monday, January 6, 2025
NWMLS Release - 2024 December Stats
NWMLS December Release
December 2024 Key Takeaways
Active Listings
- The number of homes for sale increased 25%
year-over-year throughout the NWMLS coverage area, with 21 out of 26
counties seeing a double-digit increase compared
to December 2023.
- The five counties with the highest increases in
active inventory for sale were Snohomish (+46.1%), Douglas (+43.3%),
Cowlitz (40.8%), Grant (+39.9%) and Skagit (+38.2%).
Closed Sales
- There were 4,812 closed sales of residential homes
and condominium units, an increase of 19.8% when compared
to December 2023 (4,018).
- The total dollar value of closed sales in December
2024 for residential homes was $3,284,574,394 and $409,740,278 for
condominiums ($3,694,314,671 in total), an increase of 24.8% when
compared to December 2023.
Median Sales
Price
- The median price for residential homes and
condominiums increased by 4.3% year-over-year from
$597,975 in December 2023 to $623,500 in December 2024. Prices decreased
month-over-month by 3.33% when compared to November 2024
($645,000).
- The three counties with the highest median sale
prices were San Juan ($849,500), King ($800,000), and Snohomish
($744,995), and the three counties with the lowest median sale prices were
Ferry ($125,000), Adams ($292,300) and Pacific ($320,000).
CNBC: "Worrying supply trend" in housing market
CNBC recently posted an article on a "worrying supply trend" in the housing market. We will explore in more detailed below.
Key takeaways
The Housing Market is heading into 2025 with a worrying
supply trend:
Active Listings in November were 12.1% higher than they were
in November 2023 and hit the highest level since 2020.
More than half of those homes stayed on the market for at
least 60 days without going under contract.
The latest report from S&P Case Shiller showed prices up
nationally 3.6% compared to October 2023.
Weitz Take: For those that follow this blog, this is not a surprise
whatsoever. We expect to see more distressed sales, increasing inventory and
eventually more price drops. This will be especially interesting when the new
ADU laws (I'll be posting an overview in the coming days/ week) are put in place in cities around the State (Washington State).
As I’ve mentioned in previous blogs, I believe we have seen
the highest of pricing in general and expect more pressure on prices as we move
deeper into 2025. The only thing that would change that would be a fairly steep
reduction in interest rates (or inventory goes down dramatically again) but for now, that doesn’t seem to be in the works.
For more information on Snohomish Commercial Real Estate, consider contacting a Snohomish Real Estate Investment Broker.
My Contact
Scott Weitz
Scott@WeitzCommercial.com
T: 206.306.4034.
www.weitzcommercial.com