FHA delinquencies rise dramatically and inventory increasing across the nation

 

Recent CNBC updates on national housing statistics and delinquency levels. 

First off, we have big news on FHA delinquencies which rose to 11.3% of ALL LOAN ARE IN DEFAULT. To be fair, the total mortgage delinquency rate is 3.98%. That said, the FHA rate in my eyes is clearly a leading indicator and will obviously be a higher number as the down payment requirement is only 3.5%. If/ when  those properties go into foreclosure, that will lead to more distressed sales....more price cuts and the negative cycle continues from there. 

Another video on pending home sales which fell to the LOWEST LEVEL EVER (since they starting tracking the stats at least in 2001.  

That said, inventory levels up 27.38% YOY from last year. It doesn't take a Ivy League economist to see that supply/ demand 101 would indicate that we have some troubles ahead. As I've been saying for months, this market simply doesn't pencil with interest rates at current levels especially if you look at the layoffs we are seeing in various industries. 

NWMLS February Market Stats

 

Below are the recent stats of the NWMLS for February 2025 ...

Active Listings

• The number of homes for sale increased 39.4% year-over-year throughout the NWMLS service area. There were 10,448 active listings on the market at the end of February 2025, with 24 out of 26 counties seeing a double-digit increase compared to February 2024. When compared to the previous month, active inventory increased by 207 listings (+2%), up from 10,241 in January 2025.
• The six counties with the highest increases in active inventory were Kittitas (+76.7%), Snohomish (+65.3%), Grant (+54.2%), King (+52%), Whatcom (+48.2%) and Chelan (+42.7%).

Closed Sales

• There were 4,268 closed sales of residential homes and condominium units in February 2025, an increase of 1.9% when compared to February 2024 (4,189). When compared to the previous month, the number of closed sales increased by 14.5%, up from 3,727 sales in January 2025.
• The total dollar value of closed sales in February 2025 for residential homes was $2,856,599,410 and $463,877,754 for condominiums ($3,320,477,164 in total), an increase of 5% when compared to February 2024.

Median Sales Price

• Overall, the median price for residential homes and condominiums sold in February 2025 was $630,000, an increase of 3.6% when compared to February 2024 ($608,111).
• The three counties with the highest median sale prices were San Juan ($880,000), King ($820,000) and Snohomish ($734,975), and the three counties with the lowest median sale prices were Columbia ($224,000), Pacific $292,500) and Okanogan ($322,500).

New Construction

• NWMLS brokers reported 745 closed sales of new construction units in February 2025. This was a year-over-year decrease of 12.1% when compared to February 2024 (848 units).
• The median sales price for new construction units sold in February 2025 was $773,420, an increase of 5.9% from the February 2024 price of $730,000.

Weitz Take: 

YOY price increase of 3.6% would seemingly be good thing (and unto itself it is), but the real takeaway here for me are the massive inventory hikes..... Supply and Demand 101 would say that we will likely start to see some price drops in the near future. Interest rates are falling but will that be enough to buoy the market?...I question it. As I've said for a long time, INVENTORY is the key as to where we predict the market to go. 

For more information, consider contacting a Snohomish County Commercial Real Estate Broker. 

Scott Weitz

t: 206-306-4034

Scott@weitzcommercial.com