Tuesday, March 12, 2024

CNBC - Homebuyers need to earn 80% more than in 2020 to afford a house in this market.

CNBC Article outlines the increased costs of housing in the past 4 years. 

Some key takeaways: 

Almost 4 years ago, household earning $59,000 annually could afford a new mortgage without spending more than 30% of their monthly income with a 10% down payment according to Zillow Group. 

While the typical household in 2024 makes about $81,000 / year (up from $66k), wages have not kept up with housing costs. 

Since January, 2020, the typical mortgage payment on the typical home has almost doubled, according a a senior economist at Zillow. 

Nowadays, a potential home buyers to make $106,5000 to afford a typical home.

Tight supply is another reason behind the unaffordability. 

The number of new housing  units built throughout the years has been declining and law supply is rooted in restrictive land use and zoning regulations. 

WEITZ: Nothing new here necessarily. Yes, affordability is a problem. Yes, low inventory is a key component of that. I continue to believe you will see an inventory increase as people 1) sell 2nd or 3rd homes; 2) we see distressed listings either in the form of defaults (job losses appear to be mounting); 3) divorce, 4) elderly people moving out of their homes or passing them to the next generation; or 5) people just wanting to move to a new area. 

I have a hard time seeing this entire pricing situation as sustainable. Fed Chairman Powell all but admitted he's trying to lower prices when the rate increases were established by the Fed. I personally think he's surprised by the resiliency to this point (as am I), but I don't know if he fully thought of the collateral damage that no one would sell their home with a 2.5-3% rate to buy something at 7% and thus we have created the most stagnant market of my lifetime. The next 12-24 months will be a tug of war between inventory vs. rates. If rates fall and inventory stays the same, we will see continued growth. If inventory grows and rates stay somewhat in line, I think we see some weakness in pricing in many parts of the country. If I had to bet, I'm betting on the latter of those two. I simply don't think these prices are sustainable for the average American (certainly not young american who doesn't have equity in a current home) although I certainly feel like the black sheep with that opinion these days. 

.... Time will tell. 





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