Past Due CRE loans increase to 9% - highest in a decade

Update on CRE loan defaults according to Bisnow.com. Find the original article here. 

The facts: 

1) Past due nonresidential commercial real estate loans increased by 1.8B or 9% form the previous quarter according to the FDIC coupled with a 64.2B (79.5%) increase in profits. 

2) The default (or "non-current" as they call it) for non-owner occupied commercial real estate loans is not at its highest level since Q4 2013. 

3) This increase is contributing to the amount of 'problem banks' that either have low capital reserves, a high number of nonperforming loans, weak management, consistent losses or liquidity problems according to CoStar. 

The number of banks on the FDIC problem list went from 52 in Q4 '23 to 63 in Q1 '24. 

Weitz Take: 

None of this is a surprise if you follow this blog. Expect more of the same. I'd expect that we start to see bank failures making the news by end of '24/ 1st half of '25. I have to say - between wars escalating across the globe, the current situation of political weaponization of the legal system in the USA, and what I perceive as obvious economic peril quickly approaching,  I've never been more uncertain of this path of this country or the world leadership. If nothing else, it will fascinating (if not sad) to watch it play out.