Mill Creek's Annexation Crossroads

Weitz Commercial | Market Insight

Mill Creek's Annexation Crossroads: Four Scenarios, One Big Decision

What four annexation scenarios could mean for Mill Creek's tax base, its commercial corridors, and the property owners watching from the sidelines.

The Mill Creek City Council reached a pivotal moment on annexation at its July meeting, reviewing four expansion scenarios and signaling a direction without locking anything in. Consultants Rob Fenty (1961 Consulting) and Sarah Emmans (SME Consulting) led the presentation, while City Manager Moto framed the study as a chance to strengthen the city's financial footing.

The Big Picture

The consulting team split Mill Creek's growth area into five blocks and modeled each one's costs and revenue through 2044. The headline finding: single-family residential areas cost the city more than they generate, while commercial and industrial corridors pay their own way.

That's a dynamic we see across Snohomish County: commercial and industrial development tends to carry more than its share of the municipal tax load, subsidizing the residential services around it. It's one more reason we watch annexation and zoning decisions closely for clients evaluating Snohomish County commercial real estate.

Council set three tests for any scenario:

• Real financial impact within about three years
• Infrastructure that meets Mill Creek's standards
• Lasting city influence over what happens next

The Four Scenarios

1. Mill Creek East (Blocks A + B)
About 10,700 residents, mostly built-out and residential. Nets roughly $1.1M in year one but declines to around $500K by year 18 as a tax credit expires. Low-risk and familiar, but adds no commercial base, and part of Block B may not clear the Boundary Review Board.

2. Mill Creek South (Blocks C, D, H)
About 11,700 residents along Highway 527. The strongest financial performer, roughly $2.7M net in year one, rising to about $5.3M by year 18, but it includes neighborhoods likely to resist annexation and unresolved questions around Mays Pond, North Creek Park, and a sliver in the Northshore School District.

3. A + D + H
About 15,000 residents, following the power lines south. Financially in the middle, but seen by some on Council as costing more in process than it saves. Mayor Pro Tem Duque favored starting with Blocks A and B first.

4. All Five Blocks
About 22,400 residents, staged over several years. This option delivers the largest return, roughly $3.8M growing to $5.9M, and is the only one that meaningfully boosts the city's bonding capacity. But Council Member Cavaleri warned it could trigger state growth mandates that force more apartments into blocks the city wants kept commercial, a tension worth watching for anyone tracking Mill Creek's commercial zoning.

Pushback and Where Things Stand

Council Member Steckler challenged cost estimates tied to Block A as hard to trace; Fenty responded that staffing projections were modeled on Mill Creek's own employee ratios and will be refined later. Emmans also revised Block H's population estimate upward, from about 1,000 to roughly 2,600, after finding more multifamily housing than originally expected.

Steckler favored Blocks D and H alone as the cleanest financial play. Cavaleri argued Block C is likely needed for Boundary Review Board approval, and Mayor Vignal agreed that C, D, and H would be her pick if a third block is added. Council Member Paddock raised the question no one else had: what's the exit plan if the city announces intent to annex and later decides against it?

What's Next

No final decision has been made. Staff will build a staging plan for the favored scenario, and early talks with the Boundary Review Board will begin in parallel. A go/no-go decision is expected in the coming months.

Our Take

Annexation studies like this one are worth watching well beyond city limits. The blocks under discussion sit along growth corridors that matter for retail, industrial, and multifamily positioning throughout south Snohomish County, and how Mill Creek stages this decision will shape zoning, infrastructure investment, and commercial demand in the area for years to come. Owners and investors with property near these blocks should be paying attention now, not once a staging plan is finalized. 

For more on Snohomish County commercial real estate, please reach out to us at Scott@weitzcommercial.com or Nathan@weitzcommercial.com.

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This post is for general informational purposes and is not legal or investment advice. Annexation scenarios, boundaries, and financial projections are subject to change as the City Council's review continues. Confirm current details with the City of Mill Creek before making decisions about a specific property.

Scott Weitz President | Broker Weitz Commercial 2716 Colby Ave Everett, WA 98201  206.306.4034 scott@weitzcommercial.com

Trusted Advisors. Local Knowledge. Lasting Relationships.
Weitz Commercial is a full-service commercial real estate firm focused on helping clients navigate opportunities and solve problems.

Everett Unenforced Masonry Overview

Weitz Commercial | Market Insight

The Rules Nobody's Enforcing: Unreinforced Masonry in Everett

What commercial and multifamily owners in Snohomish County should know about brick buildings, earthquake risk, and a regulatory gap that hasn't closed yet.

Walk down Colby Avenue, Hewitt, or Rucker in downtown Everett and you're surrounded by the city's most character-rich buildings century-old brick storefronts and mixed-use blocks that give the core its identity. Many of those same buildings are also classified as unreinforced masonry (URM): load-bearing brick or block walls built without the steel reinforcement and wall-to-floor/roof connections that modern code requires to keep a building standing in an earthquake.

Here's the part most owners don't realize: in Everett, and across most of Washington outside Seattle, retrofitting those buildings is not mandatory. The rules exist on paper. They're rarely triggered in practice.

What counts as a URM building

A typical URM is a brick, hollow clay tile, or unreinforced concrete-block building, generally constructed before the 1940s, with at least one load-bearing wall that lacks steel reinforcement. Without retrofitting, these walls, and especially unbraced parapets, are prone to cracking, partial collapse, or falling debris during ground shaking. Given the Pacific Northwest's Cascadia earthquake exposure, that's not a theoretical risk.

Everett has already counted the buildings

This isn't a guess. In 2023, the Washington Emergency Management Division, the Department of Archaeology & Historic Preservation (DAHP), and the Downtown Everett Association trained volunteers to conduct a sidewalk survey of the city's building stock. The pilot project identified more than 120 buildings in Everett showing URM characteristics, a notable inventory for a single pilot effort. The intent behind the survey was to eventually prioritize retrofit funding and risk mitigation, and DAHP has since received federal disaster-mitigation grant funding to build out a statewide URM data portal.

In other words: the city and state know where the risk sits. Knowing isn't the same as requiring anything be done about it.

Why the requirements go unenforced

Washington's Existing Building Code includes an appendix (Appendix A) with detailed seismic retrofit standards specifically for unreinforced masonry bearing-wall buildings, bracing parapets, strengthening roof and floor connections to walls, and repairing deteriorated mortar joints. It's a real, detailed technical standard. The catch is how it gets applied:

• It's largely permit-triggered, not proactive. A URM retrofit typically only becomes a requirement when an owner pulls a permit for a "substantial alteration" — a major remodel, change of occupancy, or similar. Left alone, a building can sit unretrofitted indefinitely.
• There's no Everett-specific mandatory ordinance. Seattle is the notable exception in the state, it has spent several years building toward a mandatory URM retrofit ordinance (with compliance currently voluntary while the city develops supportive funding and code recognition for completed retrofits). No comparable mandatory ordinance exists in Everett.
• Local code enforcement is complaint-driven. Everett's Code Enforcement Unit responds to reported violations, nuisance, zoning, dangerous-building complaints, rather than conducting proactive structural sweeps of older masonry stock. Absent a complaint or a permit application, a URM building's status simply doesn't come up.

Why this matters for owners and investors

For anyone holding, buying, or lending against older brick buildings in Everett's core (commercial or multifamily), this gap cuts both ways:

• No immediate compliance deadline means no forced capital expense today, which keeps basis and returns intact for buildings that would otherwise carry heavy retrofit costs.
• But the risk doesn't disappear: it shifts to insurance underwriting, tenant safety liability, and disclosure obligations at sale. Lenders and insurers are increasingly asking about seismic risk directly, URM ordinance or not.
• Seattle's trajectory is a preview. Cities that survey their URM stock tend to eventually regulate it. If Everett follows that same path, buildings identified today become tomorrow's mandatory retrofit list and early movers who retrofit voluntarily may have more flexibility on cost, timeline, and financing than owners who wait for a deadline.
• Due diligence should assume the code is silent. Don't rely on the absence of a violation notice as evidence a masonry building is structurally sound. A pre-purchase structural assessment from a licensed engineer is the only way to actually know what you're buying.

Scott's take

We're seeing more capital interested in downtown Everett's older brick buildings — adaptive reuse is one of the categories we flagged as improving in this month's Opportunity Index. That's a good thing for the core. But "no mandatory retrofit ordinance" isn't the same as "no risk." Owners of URM buildings should treat a structural evaluation the same way they'd treat a Phase I environmental report: a standard piece of diligence, not an optional one. The regulatory gap will close eventually. Buildings that get ahead of it will be worth more when it does. For more information on Snohomish County Commercial Real Estate, please email us at Scott@Weitzcommercial or Nathan@weitzcommercial.com.

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This post is for general informational purposes and is not legal, engineering, or compliance advice. Building code requirements change and can vary by permit type and project scope. Before making decisions about a specific property, confirm current requirements with the City of Everett Permit Services and consult a licensed structural engineer.

Scott Weitz President | Broker Weitz Commercial 206.306.4034 scott@weitzcommercial.com

Trusted Advisors. Local Knowledge. Lasting Relationships.
Weitz Commercial is a full-service commercial real estate firm focused on helping clients navigate opportunities and solve problems.
WEITZCOMMERCIAL.COM  |  © 2026 Weitz Commercial Real Estate Services, LLC.

Weitz Commercial Market Watch August 2026

MARKET WATCH

SNOHOMISH COUNTY MARKET UPDATE

August 2026 — Local Perspective. Real Insight. Real Value.

THE 9 THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

1. Residential Active Listings (YoY)

Inventory continues to build compared to last year, giving buyers more options and creating a more balanced market.

2,310 (July 2026)  vs  1,731 (July 2025)

+33.4% YoY change

2. New Listings (YoY)

More sellers are entering the market compared to this time last year, adding to available inventory.

1,303 (July 2026)  vs  1,106 (July 2025)

+17.8% YoY change

3. Months of Inventory (YoY)

Months of inventory shows how long it would take to sell all active listings at the current sales pace.

2.9 (July 2026)  vs  2.2 (July 2025)

+0.7 YoY change

A balanced market is typically 4–6 months of inventory.

4. Median Sale Price (YoY)

Median sale price has softened slightly compared to last year, reflecting higher rates and increased inventory.

$757,250 (July 2026)  vs  $805,000 (July 2025)

-5.9% YoY change

5. Mortgage Rates (YoY)

Higher mortgage rates continue to impact affordability and buyer demand.

6.65% (July 2026)  vs  6.82% (July 2025)

Monthly Payment on Median Price Home ($710,000 with 20% down)

$3,889 July 2026

$4,104 July 2025

+$215 more per month

6. Notable Commercial Transactions

Ivar's Mukilteo

• Sale price: $10,000,000
• Price per SF: $1,038
• Address: 710 Front St, Mukilteo, WA 98275
• Purchased by the City of Everett

7. Legal & Government Watch

Everett Stadium Update

• City of Everett continues purchase of property for Aquasox stadium
• 11 of 17 properties purchased
• Total acquisition costs currently at $17.3 million

We monitor the issues that impact property values, development and investment.

8. Opportunity Index

IMPROVING Development Land Small Multifamily Industrial Owner-User Adaptive Reuse

STABLE Neighborhood Retail Medical Office Self-Storage

CHALLENGING Commodity Office Older Class C Retail

9. Scott's Perspective

Market thoughts.
Price compression and inventory increases are driving the market. Inventory is up to 2,310 from 1,731 last year — a notable 33% increase.

Why it matters.
Until further notice, listing inventory will dictate our stance on the residential market. If that number continues to increase, further price compression seems inevitable. If rates go down and/or inventory decreases, the market could shift, but otherwise, we expect more of the same.

What we are watching.
The commercial market typically performs separately from the residential market, but we're seeing more listings in Snohomish Commercial as well. The same principles will apply in Commercial — inventory will steer the ship.

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Scott Weitz President | Broker Weitz Commercial 425.275.9562 scott@weitzcommercial.com

Trusted Advisors. Local Knowledge. Lasting Relationships.
Weitz Commercial is a full-service commercial real estate firm focused on helping clients navigate opportunities and solve problems.
WEITZCOMMERCIAL.COM  |  © 2026 Weitz Commercial Real Estate Services, LLC.